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Are We Nearly There Yet? Employment, Interest Rates and Inflation
Rising interest rates and inflation are spooking financial markets. Unemployment data suggests that labour markets are tight. Central Banks will have to respond to a collapse in the three asset bubbles.
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8 Downside Risks to Indian Economy in 2018
The India-optimists opine that the negative effects of demonetization have subsided. Initial glitches in GST implementation are now over. Together Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) and National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) should put a check on bad loans despite the delaying tactics used by loan defaulters, and bank credit to the industrial sector will be back to normal.
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Is India Overplaying its Demographic Dividend?
India boasts about its demographic dividend, but this dividend cannot be taken for granted in the face of high rates of youth unemployment, underemployment, disguised unemployment and skill deficit-low productivity and low wages trap of the informal sector. And while India does have a large and growing number of graduates, their quality, skill and employability remain a serious concern.
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A Safe Place to Hide – Inflation and the Bond Markets
US bond yields have risen from historic lows, they should rise further, they may not. The Federal Reserve is beginning to reduce its balance sheet other CBs continue QE. US bonds may still be a safe haven, but a hawkish Fed makes short duration vulnerable. Short dated UK Gilts make a safe place to hide, come the correction in stocks.
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A warning Knell From The housing Market – Inciting a Riot?
Global residential real estate prices continue to rise but momentum is slowing. Prices in Russia continue to fall but Australian house prices look set to follow. After a decade of QE, real estate will be more sensitive to interest rate increases.
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The Risk of a Correction in the Equity Bull Market
Since March 2009, the US stock market has been trending broadly higher. If we can continue to make new highs, or at least, not correct to the downside by more than 20%, until August of this year it will be the longest equity bull-market in US history.
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Disruption: Women and the Global Workforce
The economic empowerment of women is one of the biggest revolutions of the century. This transformation is one both with and without borders – a crusade that countries stand to win from and an alliance that unites women everywhere. While there are nuances across cultures, politics, and socioeconomic strata, the undeniable fact is that the success of this movement is one that is critical to overcoming productivity bottlenecks in many companies with the potential to add trillions of dollars to the global economy.
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