Colin lloyd Global Economy Expert

Colin is an investment writer and television presenter specialising in macroeconomics and the financial markets.  He is the founder of "In the Long Run", an alternative investment consultancy in 2010 advising hedge funds on sales, marketing and business development. He is also a member of the advisory committee of Asia Alternative Investments Network. Colin holds prestigious qualifications from Columbia University in the City of New York, Yale University and the University of Michigan.

 

Gold – Is It All that Glisters?

Uncertainty about US trade policy has truncated the rally in stocks Gold remains supported by central bank buying and fears of a US$ collapse Gold miners look best placed to reap the benefits regardless of direction A collapse in the U$ is needed for gold to rally substantially In Q4 2018, as stocks declined, gold rallied 8.1% and gold mining stocks 13.7%. It was a prescient reminder of the value of gold as a portfolio diversifier. There have, however, been some other developments both for gold and gold mining stocks which are worthy of closer investigation.

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Trade Wars, The Prospects for Freer Trade and the Impact on Asset Prices

·        Will the Sino-US trade war breed contagion? ·        Will the dispute trigger a global recession? ·        Has the era of freer trade ended? ·        Will asset prices suffer? 

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Debasing the Baseless - Modern Monetary Theory

·        Populist politicians are turning to Modern Monetary Theory  ·        Fiscal stimulus has not led to significant inflation during the last decade ·        MMT is too radical to be adopted in full but the allure of fiscal expansion is great ·        Asset markets will benefit over the medium-term

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Global Real Estate – Has The Tide Begun to Recede?

·        Despite the fourth quarter shakeout in stocks, real estate values keep rising ·        Financial conditions remain key, especially in a low rate environment ·        Isolated instances of weakness have yet to breed contagion ·        The reversal of central bank tightening has averted a more widespread correction

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China in Transition - From Manufacturer to Consumer

China is evolving from a current account surplus to deficit country Increased domestic consumption and dis-saving by an ageing population drives the trend  Lower investment in developed countries may be assuaged by major central banks Emerging and Frontier markets will struggle to replace China's long-term investment

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