Colin lloyd Global Economy Guru

Colin is an investment writer and television presenter specialising in macroeconomics and the financial markets.  He is the founder of "In the Long Run", an alternative investment consultancy in 2010 advising hedge funds on sales, marketing and business development. He is also a member of the advisory committee of Asia Alternative Investments Network. Colin holds prestigious qualifications from Columbia University in the City of New York, Yale University and the University of Michigan.

 

Uncertainty and the Countdown to the US Presidential Elections

·        JP Morgan analyse the impact of 14,000 presidential Tweets ·        Gold breaks out to the upside despite US$ strength ·        China backs down slightly over Hong Kong ·        Trump berates Fed Chair and China

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Chinese Currency Manipulation – Trump’s Petard

·        The risk the Sino-US trade war morphs into an international currency war has risen ·        The US$ Index is up since 2010 but its only back to the middle of it range since 2000 ·        The Chinese Yuan will weaken if the Trump administration pushes for higher tariffs ·        Escalation of domestic unrest in Hong Kong will see a flight to safety in the greenback

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Low Yield, No Yield, Negative Yield – Buy Now But Don’t Forget to Sell

·        The amount of negative yielding fixed securities has hit a new record ·        The Federal Reserve and the ECB are expected to resume easing of interest rates ·        Secondary market liquidity for many fixed income securities is dying ·        Outstanding debt is setting all-time highs

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Interest Rates, Global Value Chains and Bank Reserve Requirements

·        Global Value Chains have suffered since 2009. ·        Despite low interest rates, financial costs remain too high. ·        Bank profitability has not recovered, yet banks are still too big to fail.

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Gold – Is It All that Glisters?

Uncertainty about US trade policy has truncated the rally in stocks Gold remains supported by central bank buying and fears of a US$ collapse Gold miners look best placed to reap the benefits regardless of direction A collapse in the U$ is needed for gold to rally substantially In Q4 2018, as stocks declined, gold rallied 8.1% and gold mining stocks 13.7%. It was a prescient reminder of the value of gold as a portfolio diversifier. There have, however, been some other developments both for gold and gold mining stocks which are worthy of closer investigation.

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