Colin lloyd Global Economy Guru

Colin is an investment writer and television presenter specialising in macroeconomics and the financial markets.  He is the founder of "In the Long Run", an alternative investment consultancy in 2010 advising hedge funds on sales, marketing and business development. He is also a member of the advisory committee of Asia Alternative Investments Network. Colin holds prestigious qualifications from Columbia University in the City of New York, Yale University and the University of Michigan.

 

Capital Flows – Is a Reckoning Nigh?

·        Borrowing in Euros continues to rise even as the rate of US borrowing slows

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Central Bank Balance Sheet Reductions – Will Anyone Follow the Fed?

The next wave of quantitative easing (QE) will be different, credit spreads will be controlled. The Federal Reserve (FED) may continue to tighten but few other central banks can follow. The European Central Bank (ECB) balance sheet reduction might occur if a crisis does not arrive first. Interest rates are likely to remain structurally lower than before 2008.

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Sustainable Government Debt – An Old Idea Refreshed

New research from the Peterson Institute suggests bond yields may fall once more. Demographic forces and unfunded state liabilities point to an inevitable reckoning. The next financial crisis may be assuaged with a mix of fiscal expansion plus QQE. Pension fund return expectations for bonds and stocks need to be revised lower.

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A World of Debt – Where are the Risks?

Private debt has been the main source of rising debt to GDP ratios since 2008. Advanced economies have led the trend. Emerging market debt increases have been dominated by China. Credit spreads are a key indicator to watch in 2019.

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Emerging Market Sensitivity to US Monetary Policy – What does the Fed think?

Emerging market currencies have suffered from US interest rate increases. The Dallas Fed proposes reserve/GDP ratio as a simple indicator of stress. If tightening is nearly complete their may be buying opportunities in EM stocks. 

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