Colin lloyd Global Economy Guru

Colin is an investment writer and television presenter specialising in macroeconomics and the financial markets.  He is the founder of "In the Long Run", an alternative investment consultancy in 2010 advising hedge funds on sales, marketing and business development. He is also a member of the advisory committee of Asia Alternative Investments Network. Colin holds prestigious qualifications from Columbia University in the City of New York, Yale University and the University of Michigan.

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Canary in the Coal-Mine: Emerging Market Contagion

As US interest rates continue to normalise and US tariffs begin to bite, a number of emerging markets (EM’s) have come under pressure. Of course, the largest market to exhibit signs of stress is China, the MSCI China Index is down 7% since mid-June, whilst the RMB has also weakened against the US$ by more than 6% since its April low. Will contagion spread to developed markets and, if so, which country might be the ‘carrier’?

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Where in the World? Hunting for Value in the Bond Market

Few government bond markets offer a positive real return. Those that do tend to have high associated currency risk. Active management of fixed income portfolios is the only real solution. Italy is the only G7 country offering a real-yield greater than 1.5%.

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Italy and the Repricing of European Government Debt

The yield spread between 10yr BTPs and Bunds widened 114bp in May. Populist and anti-EU politics were the catalyst for this repricing of risk. Spain, Portugal and Greece all saw yields increase as Bund yields declined. The ECB policy of OMT should help to avoid a repeat of 2011/2012.

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Robots, Employment and the Mis-Measurement of Productivity

UK productivity – output/hour has risen 1.5% in a decade. Unemployment, at 4.2%, is the lowest since April 1975. Real-wages have risen by 1.1% per annum over the last four years. Robots may be coming but it’s not showing up in the data.

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Is the US Exporting a Recession?

The Federal Reserve continue to raise rates as S&P earnings beat estimates. The ECB and BoJ maintain QE. Globally, corporations rely on US$ financing, nonetheless. Signs of a slowdown in growth are clearer outside the US.

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