Colin lloyd Global Economy Guru

Colin is an investment writer and television presenter specialising in macroeconomics and the financial markets.  He is the founder of "In the Long Run", an alternative investment consultancy in 2010 advising hedge funds on sales, marketing and business development. He is also a member of the advisory committee of Asia Alternative Investments Network. Colin holds prestigious qualifications from Columbia University in the City of New York, Yale University and the University of Michigan.

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China – Leading Indicator? Stocks, Credit Policy, Rebalancing and Money Supply

Chinese bond yields have reached their highest since October 2014. Chinese stocks have corrected despite the US market making new highs. The PBoC has introduced targeted lending to SMEs and agricultural borrowers. Meanwhile, money supply growth is below target and continues to moderate.

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Bull Market Breather or Beginning of The End?

Stock markets have generally taken a breather during November. High yield and corporate bond yields have risen, but from record lows. Since April, the Interest Rate Swap yield curve has flattened far less than Treasuries. Global economic growth forecasts continued to be revised higher.

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Global Real Estate and the end of QE – Is it time to be afraid?

Rising interest rates and higher bond yields are here to stay. Real estate prices seem not to be affected by higher finance costs. Household debt continues to rise especially in advanced economies. Real estate supply remains constrained and demand continues to grow.  

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European Bonds Outlook

Green bonds have been the best performers in the Eurozone year to date. Is it a warning knell or cause for celebration? The IMF austerity is still in place, but there are hopes they will relent. Portuguese bonds have also rallied since March whilst Spanish Bonos declined. German Bund yields are up to 28 bps since January heralding an end to ECB QE.

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Japan's Economic Outlook

Prime minister Shinzō Abe called a snap general election in October, amid rising geopolitical tensions. The Bank of Japan maintains quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) despite the Federal Reserve's plan to reduce its balance sheet. Japanese stocks will benefit if the ‘Three Arrows’ of Abenomics continue. In addition, wages are rising whilst inflation is stuck at zero.

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Is Chinese growth about to falter?

China has long been the marginal driver of demand for a wide array of commodities. In an attempt to understand the recent rise in the price of industrial metals, the strength of Chinese demand is a key factor. The picture is mixed.

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The Next Commodity Super-Cycle

Does the rising price of industrial metals herald the beginning of the next commodity super-cycle? Industrial Metals have been increasing sharply during the last quarter. Global economic growth remains muted but is accelerating in emerging markets. In addition, capital expenditure in the mining sector has been weak leading to supply constraints. A short-term cyclical recovery seems more likely than the beginning of a new super-cycle.

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