Colin lloyd Global Economy Guru

Colin is an investment writer and television presenter specialising in macroeconomics and the financial markets.  He is the founder of "In the Long Run", an alternative investment consultancy in 2010 advising hedge funds on sales, marketing and business development. He is also a member of the advisory committee of Asia Alternative Investments Network. Colin holds prestigious qualifications from Columbia University in the City of New York, Yale University and the University of Michigan.

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Robots, Employment and the Mis-Measurement of Productivity

UK productivity – output/hour has risen 1.5% in a decade. Unemployment, at 4.2%, is the lowest since April 1975. Real-wages have risen by 1.1% per annum over the last four years. Robots may be coming but it’s not showing up in the data.

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Is the US Exporting a Recession?

The Federal Reserve continue to raise rates as S&P earnings beat estimates. The ECB and BoJ maintain QE. Globally, corporations rely on US$ financing, nonetheless. Signs of a slowdown in growth are clearer outside the US.

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Inflation or Employment

Inflationary fears are growing and US rates continue to rise. Employment has become more flexible since the crisis of 2008/2009. Commodity prices have risen but from multi-year lows. During the next recession job losses will rapidly temper inflationary pressures.

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What to Expect from Central Bankers

The Federal Reserve continues to tighten and other Central Banks will follow. The BIS expects stocks to lose their lustre and bond yields to rise. The normalisation process will be protracted, like the QE it replaces. Macro prudential policy will have greater emphasis during the next boom.

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Stocks for the Long Run but not the Short

In the long run stocks outperform bonds. For a decade stocks, bonds and real estate have risen in tandem. The risk of a substantial correction is high. Value-based equity investment is unfashionably enticing.

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Are We Nearly There Yet? Employment, Interest Rates and Inflation

Rising interest rates and inflation are spooking financial markets. Unemployment data suggests that labour markets are tight. Central Banks will have to respond to a collapse in the three asset bubbles.

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A Safe Place to Hide – Inflation and the Bond Markets

US bond yields have risen from historic lows, they should rise further, they may not. The Federal Reserve is beginning to reduce its balance sheet other CBs continue QE. US bonds may still be a safe haven, but a hawkish Fed makes short duration vulnerable. Short dated UK Gilts make a safe place to hide, come the correction in stocks.

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A warning Knell From The housing Market – Inciting a Riot?

Global residential real estate prices continue to rise but momentum is slowing. Prices in Russia continue to fall but Australian house prices look set to follow. After a decade of QE, real estate will be more sensitive to interest rate increases. 

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The Risk of a Correction in the Equity Bull Market

Since March 2009, the US stock market has been trending broadly higher. If we can continue to make new highs, or at least, not correct to the downside by more than 20%, until August of this year it will be the longest equity bull-market in US history.

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China – Leading Indicator? Stocks, Credit Policy, Rebalancing and Money Supply

Chinese bond yields have reached their highest since October 2014. Chinese stocks have corrected despite the US market making new highs. The PBoC has introduced targeted lending to SMEs and agricultural borrowers. Meanwhile, money supply growth is below target and continues to moderate.

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