Colin lloyd Global Economy Guru

Colin is an investment writer and television presenter specialising in macroeconomics and the financial markets.  He is the founder of "In the Long Run", an alternative investment consultancy in 2010 advising hedge funds on sales, marketing and business development. He is also a member of the advisory committee of Asia Alternative Investments Network. Colin holds prestigious qualifications from Columbia University in the City of New York, Yale University and the University of Michigan.

 

Is the US Exporting a Recession?

The Federal Reserve continue to raise rates as S&P earnings beat estimates. The ECB and BoJ maintain QE. Globally, corporations rely on US$ financing, nonetheless. Signs of a slowdown in growth are clearer outside the US.

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Inflation or Employment

Inflationary fears are growing and US rates continue to rise. Employment has become more flexible since the crisis of 2008/2009. Commodity prices have risen but from multi-year lows. During the next recession job losses will rapidly temper inflationary pressures.

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What to Expect from Central Bankers

The Federal Reserve continues to tighten and other Central Banks will follow. The BIS expects stocks to lose their lustre and bond yields to rise. The normalisation process will be protracted, like the QE it replaces. Macro prudential policy will have greater emphasis during the next boom.

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Stocks for the Long Run but not the Short

In the long run stocks outperform bonds. For a decade stocks, bonds and real estate have risen in tandem. The risk of a substantial correction is high. Value-based equity investment is unfashionably enticing.

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Are We Nearly There Yet? Employment, Interest Rates and Inflation

Rising interest rates and inflation are spooking financial markets. Unemployment data suggests that labour markets are tight. Central Banks will have to respond to a collapse in the three asset bubbles.

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