More in Global Economy


5 days

The Rising Number of US Teachers Leaving for Other Fields

The rate of US teachers leaving for other jobs is on the rise. Adam Grundy of the US Census Bureau reports in a short note (May 2018): 

6 days

Robots, Employment and the Mis-Measurement of Productivity

UK productivity – output/hour has risen 1.5% in a decade. Unemployment, at 4.2%, is the lowest since April 1975. Real-wages have risen by 1.1% per annum over the last four years. Robots may be coming but it’s not showing up in the data.

7 days

The Freakonomics of Indian Marriage – Part 2

In the first part, I discussed how educational and economic empowerment of women has been eroding their bargaining power in India’s matrimonial market. As a result, grooms (or their families) expect (and often extract) some kind of premium or scarcity rent from the brides. Are brides or their families so helpless? Does economics provide any guidance on how women can improve their bargaining power in matrimonial market without compromising their career goals?

20 days

Is the US Exporting a Recession?

The Federal Reserve continue to raise rates as S&P earnings beat estimates. The ECB and BoJ maintain QE. Globally, corporations rely on US$ financing, nonetheless. Signs of a slowdown in growth are clearer outside the US.

1 month

Inflation or Employment

Inflationary fears are growing and US rates continue to rise. Employment has become more flexible since the crisis of 2008/2009. Commodity prices have risen but from multi-year lows. During the next recession job losses will rapidly temper inflationary pressures.

2 months

What to Expect from Central Bankers

The Federal Reserve continues to tighten and other Central Banks will follow. The BIS expects stocks to lose their lustre and bond yields to rise. The normalisation process will be protracted, like the QE it replaces. Macro prudential policy will have greater emphasis during the next boom.

2 months

Stocks for the Long Run but not the Short

In the long run stocks outperform bonds. For a decade stocks, bonds and real estate have risen in tandem. The risk of a substantial correction is high. Value-based equity investment is unfashionably enticing.