More in Global Economy


7 months

What to Expect from Central Bankers

The Federal Reserve continues to tighten and other Central Banks will follow. The BIS expects stocks to lose their lustre and bond yields to rise. The normalisation process will be protracted, like the QE it replaces. Macro prudential policy will have greater emphasis during the next boom.

8 months

Rent or Own ?

Most people, especially Indians want to have their dream homes as soon as they can. Intense competition among banks (private as well as government banks) to acquire customers means it's easy to get a loan now than before. In addition, most people believe that property prices never fall. It's a belief...so no amount of reasoning can convince such people out of it.

8 months

Stocks for the Long Run but not the Short

In the long run stocks outperform bonds. For a decade stocks, bonds and real estate have risen in tandem. The risk of a substantial correction is high. Value-based equity investment is unfashionably enticing.

8 months

Are We Nearly There Yet? Employment, Interest Rates and Inflation

Rising interest rates and inflation are spooking financial markets. Unemployment data suggests that labour markets are tight. Central Banks will have to respond to a collapse in the three asset bubbles.

9 months

8 Downside Risks to Indian Economy in 2018

The India-optimists opine that the negative effects of demonetization have subsided. Initial glitches in GST implementation are now over. Together Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) and National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) should put a check on bad loans despite the delaying tactics used by loan defaulters, and bank credit to the industrial sector will be back to normal.

9 months

Is India Overplaying its Demographic Dividend?

India boasts about its demographic dividend, but this dividend cannot be taken for granted in the face of high rates of youth unemployment, underemployment, disguised unemployment and skill deficit-low productivity and low wages trap of the informal sector. And while India does have a large and growing number of graduates, their quality, skill and employability remain a serious concern.

9 months

A Safe Place to Hide – Inflation and the Bond Markets

US bond yields have risen from historic lows, they should rise further, they may not. The Federal Reserve is beginning to reduce its balance sheet other CBs continue QE. US bonds may still be a safe haven, but a hawkish Fed makes short duration vulnerable. Short dated UK Gilts make a safe place to hide, come the correction in stocks.