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8 months

A World of Debt – Where are the Risks?

Private debt has been the main source of rising debt to GDP ratios since 2008. Advanced economies have led the trend. Emerging market debt increases have been dominated by China. Credit spreads are a key indicator to watch in 2019.

8 months

How Does China's Higher GDP Translate into National Power?

Depending on what exchange rate you use for comparing GDP, China either already has a larger GDP than the US (using a purchasing power parity exchange rate) or will soon have a larger GDP than the US (using a market exchange rate). Stepping outside the economic issues here to the subject of international relations, does this higher GDP translate into greater international power? Michael Beckley tackles this question in "The Power of Nations  Measuring What Matters," appearing in the Fall 2018 issue of  International Security (43:2, pp. 7–44)

8 months

What Message is the Beveridge Curve Sending?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics writes: 

8 months

Argentina is Shrinking

Argentina, at the close of this article, maintains a high country risk. In fact, the second highest in Latin America and the third of the emerging countries if we include Turkey.

8 months

The Flynn Effect (Rising IQ Scores Over Time) Reverses

The "Flynn effect" refers to a pattern observed by James Flynn, a professor at the University of Otago in New Zealand. It points out that for most of the 20th century, scores on IQ tests have been rising. The reasons behind this pattern have been a subject of controversy. For example, are the rising IQ scores a result of some factor like improved nutrition, both prenatally and for young children? Are they a result of improved schooling? Or a job environment that puts greater emphasis on cognitive skills? Is there something about the design of IQ tests, perhaps combined with that has made scores go up even if underlying intelligence hasn't moved?

8 months

What to Expect in 2019

The central idea is that we are in the process of a change of cycle that central banks and governments are unlikely to disguise because both monetary tools and fiscal space have been exhausted. This change of cycle may not lead to a 2008-style recession, but more likely to a Japanese-style stagnation as debt continues to rise while economic and productivity growth weaken.

8 months

What if Most Americans Don't Care That Deeply about Trade?

"In fact, recent public opinion polling uniformly reveals that, first, foreign trade and globalization are generally popular, and in fact more popular today than at any point in recent history; second, a substantial portion of the American electorate has no strong views on U.S. trade policy or trade agreements; third, and likely due to the previous point, polls on trade fluctuate based on partisanship or the state of the U.S. economy; and, fourth, Americans’ views on specific trade policies often shift depending on question wording, especially when the actual costs of protectionism are mentioned. These polling realities puncture the current conventional wisdom on trade and public opinion—in particular, that Americans have turned en masse against trade and globalization ..."