More in Global Economy


2 months

Value, Momentum and Carry – Is it Time for Equity Investors to Switch?

·        Index tracking and growth funds have outperformed value managers for several years ·        Last month value was resurgent, but will it last? ·        In the long run, value has offered a better risk adjusted return ·        The long-term expected return from growth stocks remains hard to assess

2 months

The Dispersion of High and Low Productivity Firms Within an Industry

If you think about an economy as fairly stable and static, you would expect that any two companies within an industry would be fairly close in terms of productivity. After all, if Company A and Company B are selling similar products, and A has much higher productivity than B, it should drive B out of business. Thus, one might expect that at the end of this process, the competitors we observe within an industry in the real world should be fairly close in productivity level.

2 months

Trade: The Perils of Overstating Benefits and Costs

A vibrant and healthy economy will be continually in transition, as new technologies arise, leading to new production processes and new products, and consumer preferences shift. In addition, some companies will be managed better or have more motivated and skilled workers, while others will not. Some companies will build reputation and invest in organizational capabilities, and others will not.  International trade is of course one reason for the process of transition.

2 months

Employment Patterns for Older Americans

Americans are living longer, and also are more likely to be working in their 60s and 70s. The Congressional Budget Office provides an overview of some patterns in "Employment of People Ages 55 to 79" (September 2019). CBO writes:

2 months

The Charitable Contributions Deduction and Its Historical Evolution

Each year, the Analytical Perspectives volume produced with the proposed US Budget includes a table of "tax expenditures," which is an estimate of how much various tax deductions, exemptions, and credits reduce federal tax revenues. For example, in 2019 the tax deduction for charitable contributions to education reduced federal tax revenue by $4.1 billion, the parallel deduction for charitable contributions to health reduced federal tax revenue by $3.9 billion, and the deduction for all other charitable contributions reduced federal tax revenue by $36.6 billion.

2 months

Save the Whales, Reduce Atmospheric Carbon

When it comes to holding down the concentrations of atmospheric carbon, I'm willing to consider all sorts of possibilities, but I confess I had never considered whales. Ralph Chami, Thomas Cosimano, Connel Fullenkamp, and Sena Oztosun have written "Nature’s Solution to Climate Change: A strategy to protect whales can limit greenhouse gases and global warming" (Finance & Development, September 2019, related podcast is here).

2 months

Will Merkel’s Green Plan Work?

A few months ago we commented that there will be no energy transition without competitiveness, and given the proposal of Germany to carry out another huge green plan, the European Union faces the opportunity to correct the mistakes made in the past with the wrong subsidies and policies. An opportunity to strengthen the economic fabric of the eurozone. However, the risks of repeating the same mistakes are not small.