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9 days

Canary in the Coal-Mine: Emerging Market Contagion

As US interest rates continue to normalise and US tariffs begin to bite, a number of emerging markets (EM’s) have come under pressure. Of course, the largest market to exhibit signs of stress is China, the MSCI China Index is down 7% since mid-June, whilst the RMB has also weakened against the US$ by more than 6% since its April low. Will contagion spread to developed markets and, if so, which country might be the ‘carrier’?

10 days

Brexit: May’s Way Is Not The Only Way

If there is something we have learned from the development of the British economy since the Brexit referendum is that doomsayers were wrong. Since the Brexit vote, the UK has created 450 000 jobs.

11 days

Three Questions for the Antitrust Moment

There seems to be a widespread sense that many problems of the US economy are linked to a lack of dynamism and competition, and that a surge of antitrust enforcement might be a part of the answer. Here are three somewhat separable questions to ponder in addressing this topic. 

13 days

Robots Do Not Destroy Employment, Politicians Do

I’m not worried about artificial intelligence, I’m terrified of human stupidity. The debate about technology and its role in society that we need to have is being used to deceive citizens and scare them about the future so they accept to submit to politicians who cannot nor will protect us from the challenges of robotization. 

14 days

Tax Cuts Work. The Evidence Is Here

It happened again. Tax receipts soared in the US after the recent tax cuts. U.S. state and local government tax revenue climbed to $350.2 billion in the first quarter of 2018, a rise of 5.8 percent compared with the same time period in 2017. Individual income tax collections had big gains for a second-straight quarter with a 12.8 percent increase to $107.4 billion in 2018’s first quarter.

16 days

Saturation of Monetary Excess

In the past two weeks, emerging markets have seen the highest outflows since September 2015. Additionally, the Chinese market and its currency have completely round-tripped from the January highs.

17 days

Analogies for America: Beyond the Melting Pot

Melting pot or salad bowl? For decades now, these two contestants have been slugging it out in the contest for most appropriate metaphor for how the cultures and ethnicities of America fit together. But my preference is to think of America as chocolate fondue.