More in Global Economy


3 months

Difficulties of Making Predictions: Global Power Politics Edition

Making predictions is hard, especially about the future. It's a comment that seems to have been attributed to everyone from Nostradamus to Niels Bohr to Yogi Berra. But it's deeply true. Most of us have a tendency to make statements about the future with a high level of self-belief, avoid later reconsidering how wrong we were, and then make more statements.

3 months

The Economics of Advertising

There's an old rueful line from firms that advertise: "We know that half of all we spend on advertising is wasted, but we don't know which half." It's not clear who originally coined the phrase. But we do know that the effects of advertising have changed dramatically in a digital age. Half of all advertising spending may still be wasted, but now it's for a very different reason.

3 months

The Modern Shape-Up Labor Market

It’s not unusual to hear predictions that in the future, we will all have opportunities to run our own companies, or that jobs will become a series of freelance contracts. Here’s a representative comment from business school professor Arun Sundararajan (“The Future of Work,” Finance & Development, June 2017, p. 7-11):

3 months

Opioids: Brought to You by the Medical Care Industry

There's a lot of talk about the opioid crisis, but I'm not confident that most people have internalized just how awful it is. To set the stage, here are a couple of figures from the 2018 Economic Report of the President.

3 months

Early Childhood Education Fails Another Randomized Trial

Public programs for pre-K education have a worthy goal: reducing the gaps in educational achievement that manifest themselves in early grades. I find myself rooting for such programs to succeed. But there are now two major randomized control trial studies looking at the the results of publicly provided pre-K programs, and neither one finds lasting success. Mark W. Lipsey, Dale C. Farran, and Kelley Durkin report the results of the most recent study in "Effects of the Tennessee Prekindergarten Program on children’s achievement and behavior through third grade" (Early Childhood Research Quarterly, 2018, online version April 21, 2018). 

3 months

Copper And Gold Say A Lot About Chinese And Global Growth

Weakness in Copper persists, and it shows the risks to optimistic global growth and inflation expectations. But something else is happening in gold and copper apart from global slowdown and US dollar strength.

3 months

Conflict Minerals and Unexpected Tradeoffs

The cause seemed worthy, and the policy mild. Militia groups in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) were taxing and extorting revenue from those who mined like tin, tungsten, and tantalum. Thus, Section 1502 of the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 required companies to disclose the source of their purchases of such minerals. The hope was to reduce funding for the militias, and thus to benefit people in the area. Human rights advocacy groups supported the idea. The Good Intentions Paving Company was up and running.