Climate Change Could Increase UK Flood Damage by 20%

A newly developed "future flood map" of the UK shows that climate change could increase annual flood damage by more than 20% in today's terms over the next century.

Even if global carbon emission pledges are met, some areas including south-east England, north-west England, and south Wales will still experience significantly increased flooding due to climate change.

The UK's National Health Service (NHS) is already struggling to cope with the demand, and climate change is likely to add further pressure.

Climate change can have significant economic implications, such as damage to infrastructure, property and agriculture. For example, rising sea levels and increased frequency of extreme weather events can damage coastal infrastructure and harm the fishing industry.

The flood risk map provides a detailed picture of how much flood damage there would be to people's homes and businesses across England, Scotland, and Wales by simulating all types of flooding in the coming decades. This level of detail is critical for planning decisions such as flood defense structures, natural flood management, or even moving people out of harm's way.

Climate change can lead to various health problems, such as heat stroke, respiratory problems, and increased risk of diseases carried by insects.

The researchers used information about terrain, river flow, rainfall patterns, and sea level combined with Met Office climate predictions over the next century to create the map. The annual cost of flood damage across the UK currently stands at £700m, according to the Association of British Insurers. The scientists hope that this detailed forecast could help with land-use planning decisions and lead to more accurate government flood maps, which are currently not scrutinized by scientists.

Climate change can lead to displacement of people, food shortages and conflicts over resources, potentially destabilizing countries and increasing the risk of conflicts and migration.

The research team from Bristol University and Fathom, a company that assesses flood and climate risk, is currently working on modeling flooding in Northern Ireland to expand the forecasts to include the whole of the UK as the climate warms. The flood risk landscape in a warming world is different for every community, and understanding how it will change is crucial for making sensible investment decisions about flood defense structures, natural flood management, or even moving people out of harm's way. Calder Valley in West Yorkshire is one of the areas at particularly high risk from flooding caused by heavy rain due to its steep-sided valley, which means that run-off swells the river quickly.

The community volunteer group Slow the Flow is working to create speed bumps for the water running down the hillside before it gets to the homes and businesses below by stuffing the channels with branches and digging diversion channels to slow water down.

According to Dr. Oliver Wing, Chief Research Officer at Fathom, the UK as a whole is "not well adapted to the flood risks it currently faces, let alone any further increases in risk due to climate change." The scientists hope that the new, detailed maps could help change that by providing accurate information for better land-use planning decisions.

The UK is a signatory to several international treaties aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change, including the Paris Agreement. As such, it has a responsibility to take action and reduce its carbon footprint.

Climate change is a global problem that affects everyone, but it disproportionately affects those who are already vulnerable, such as the poor, indigenous people, and developing countries. The UK has a moral responsibility to act to reduce its carbon footprint and support those who are most affected by climate change.

Taking climate change seriously is not just an ethical or moral obligation, but it is also in the UK's national interest to do so, given the significant economic, health and security implications of climate change.