Renewable Energy and Its Need for Minerals

Renewable Energy and Its Need for Minerals

Renewable Energy and Its Need for Minerals

Solar panels and wind turbines are physical objects, and they need physical inputs. In particular, a dramatic expansion of solar and wind power will require a dramatic expansion of the production of a range of key minerals.

The IMF includes a short “Special Feature” in its most recent World Economic Outlook (October 2021) on this subject: “Clean Energy Transition and Metals: Blessing or Bottleneck?” The IMF writes:

To limit global temperature increases from climate change to 1.5 degrees Celsius, countries and firms increasingly pledge to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to net zero by 2050. Reaching this goal requires a transformation of the energy system that could substantially raise the demand for metals. Low-greenhouse-gas technologies—including
renewable energy, electric vehicles, hydrogen, and carbon capture—require more metals than their fossil-fuel-based counterparts. …

Here’s a table showing a list of main “transition metals”–that is metals likely to be important in the energy transition.

Energy_Transition_Stats.jpeg


Here’s a figure showing how the quantity of these metals needed is likely to rise by the 2030s. Notice that the left-hand axis is measured as a multiple of how much consumption of these metals by the 2030s will exceed consumption in the 2010s. Notice also that the first listed element, lithium, is being measured on the much higher right-hand axis.

higher_right-hand_axis.jpeg


Finally, here’s a figure showing how the production and reserves of four of these key transition metals are currently concentrated in a few countries–and the US does not appear as a major producer of any of them. Thus, an implication of the transition to current technologies of cleaner energy is US dependence on the countries shown here for key inputs, and not all these countries are both friendly and stable. The IMF report focuses on a subset of these metals: “The four representative metals chosen for in-depth analysis are copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Copper and nickel are well-established metals. Cobalt and lithium are probably the most promising rising metals. In the IEA’s Net Zero by 2050 emissions scenario, total consumption of lithium and cobalt rises by a factor of more than six, driven by clean energy demand, while copper shows a twofold and nickel a fourfold increase in total consumption …”

increase_in_total_consumption.jpeg


Many of those who are most strongly in favor of a swift move to cleaner energy also have severe qualms about an increase in mining. Political conflicts thus arise. In northern Nevada, a company called Lithium Americas believes it has discovered at a location called Thacker Pass one of the world’s largest deposits of lithium. However, local protestors are pushing back hard against mining this lithium. The protesters clearly to not believe that the environmental concerns can be overcome. Indeed, one story notes: ” At the Thacker Pass camp, activists who call themselves `radical environmentalists’ hope that addressing these challenges will press nations to choose to drastically reduce car and electricity use to meet their climate goals rather than develop mineral reserves to sustain lifestyles that require more energy.”
 

I should perhaps emphasize that these kinds of extrapolations about long-run demand need to be treated with care. Such predictions are premised on current technology. If demand for these minerals spiked, and their prices spiked as well, it would presumably unleash a set of incentives for finding a way to conserve on their use, to find cheaper alternatives, to recycle from previous uses, and so on. But one can at least say that given current technology, green energy advocates face a dilemma here: to support a rapid expansion of clean-energy technologies, you need to also support substantial increases in mining operations. And when it comes to the environmental damage from such mining for transition metals, it’s worth remembering that the damage is likely to be considerably less if such operations are carried out in the United States, compared to if the expanded mining is done in some of the other countries that are main potential sources for such metals.

 

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Timothy Taylor

Global Economy Expert

Timothy Taylor is an American economist. He is managing editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, a quarterly academic journal produced at Macalester College and published by the American Economic Association. Taylor received his Bachelor of Arts degree from Haverford College and a master's degree in economics from Stanford University. At Stanford, he was winner of the award for excellent teaching in a large class (more than 30 students) given by the Associated Students of Stanford University. At Minnesota, he was named a Distinguished Lecturer by the Department of Economics and voted Teacher of the Year by the master's degree students at the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs. Taylor has been a guest speaker for groups of teachers of high school economics, visiting diplomats from eastern Europe, talk-radio shows, and community groups. From 1989 to 1997, Professor Taylor wrote an economics opinion column for the San Jose Mercury-News. He has published multiple lectures on economics through The Teaching Company. With Rudolph Penner and Isabel Sawhill, he is co-author of Updating America's Social Contract (2000), whose first chapter provided an early radical centrist perspective, "An Agenda for the Radical Middle". Taylor is also the author of The Instant Economist: Everything You Need to Know About How the Economy Works, published by the Penguin Group in 2012. The fourth edition of Taylor's Principles of Economics textbook was published by Textbook Media in 2017.

   

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