Mortality Rate of Children Over the Last Two Millennia

Timothy Taylor 18/06/2019 6

The global mortality rate of infants and youth up to the age of 15, based on an average of many studies, was almost one-half (46.2%) for the two millennia up to about 1900. By 1950, it was 27%. By 2017, it had fallen to 4.6%.

The global infant mortality rate for children under the age of 1, again based on the average of many studies, was more than one-quarter (26.9%) for the two millennia up to about 1900. By 1950, it was 16%. By 2017, it had fallen to 2.9%

Here's a figure showing the patterns from Max Roser at the "Our World in Data" website (June 11, 2019). Of course, you will need to expand the version here, or go to the other website, to see the details.


I'll put off all the arguments over reasons why this happened and what it means for public policy for another day. It's Father's Day today, I just want to take a few minutes and marvel at this fundamental change in what it means to be a parent in the 21st century, especially in a high-income country. My children were much less likely to die.

A version of this article first appeared on Conversable Economist

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  • John Kauss

    Infant mortality is a serious issue that must be better addressed.

  • Randy Loval

    Despite spending more than any other country, we are still fare behind to protect our children.

  • Patrick Sinclair

    Action expresses priorities.

  • Linda Howard

    This will never change as long as we ignore the real causes.

  • Jesse Brown

    Our government is failing to take action

  • Keiran Moore

    The world’s poorest children are more likely to die than their wealthier counterparts