The Eurozone Slowdown: Five Charts And A Warning

Daniel Lacalle 03/10/2018 6

1. Manufacturing PMI fell to the lowest level since December

Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), fell in August from 111.6 to 110.9, the ninth consecutive monthly fall.

2. Capacity utilization weakened as well in the latest data

3. Industrial production weakened. Industrial production fell 0.8% vs -0.5% expected. Annual growth rate fell from 2.3% in June to minus 0.1% in July

Industrial orders fell 1.3% in June.

4. Eurozone consumer confidence fell from -1.9 to -2.9.

…Only after a 2 trillion euro stimulus and the ECB  balance sheet at 41% of GDP.

  • Growth trimmed to 2%, down from 2.1% for 2018. For 2019, the forecast is at 1.8%, down from 1.9%.
  • Unemployment remains at 8.2%
  • Government spending 45% of GDP.
  • Debt to GDP 88%.

Warning: THIS is what happens when countries abandon all reforms and bet everything on monetary policy. They sow the seeds of a recession and the central bank runs out of traditional tools.

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  • Scott Andrews

    Optimism has been dented by a sudden and rather sharp downturn in activity in the eurozone.

  • Charles Lawrence

    Even Germany has recorded a very sharp dip.

  • Gael Mungall

    The global economic expansion probably remains broadly intact.

  • Daniel White

    Good post

  • Steven Towe

    Economic growth slowed much more sharply than expected....

  • Luke Matthew

    Insightful !