The G-20 Summit Will Not Change The Slow Growth Trend

The G-20 Summit Will Not Change The Slow Growth Trend

Daniel Lacalle 25/06/2019 5

The G20 Summit is likely to generate many headlines and few concrete measures. However:

  1. Growth estimates have been coming down consistently for many months.
  2. G20 economies have been increasing debt and imbalances under constant “stimuli” which have generated diminishing returns.
  3. Global Liquidity and low rates are only disguising the misallocation of capital, poor productivity growth, and bloated government spending.
  4. An agreement between China and US may be used as a catalyst, but is unlikely to change the trend of lower growth, as it will likely be a zero-sum deal, because there is no evidence that China imports less than it needs, rather the opposite.

The G20 Summit.png

A version of this article first appeared here

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  • Paul Evans

    The obstacles to an immediate deal between China and the US are too high

  • Andrew Levitt

    EU economy is under severe pressure

  • William Phillips

    Good analysis

  • James Graham

    Well summarised !

  • Rachel Glover

    The outcome of the G-20 summit will have greater implications for global politics.

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Daniel Lacalle

Global Economy Expert

Daniel Lacalle is one the most influential economists in the world. He is Chief Economist at Tressis SV, Fund Manager at Adriza International Opportunities, Member of the advisory board of the Rafael del Pino foundation, Commissioner of the Community of Madrid in London, President of Instituto Mises Hispano and Professor at IE Business School, London School of Economics, IEB and UNED. Mr. Lacalle has presented and given keynote speeches at the most prestigious forums globally including the Federal Reserve in Houston, the Heritage Foundation in Washington, London School of EconomicsFunds Society Forum in Miami, World Economic ForumForecast Summit in Peru, Mining Show in Dubai, Our Crowd in Jerusalem, Nordea Investor Summit in Oslo, and many others. Mr Lacalle has more than 24 years of experience in the energy and finance sectors, including experience in North Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. He is currently a fund manager overseeing equities, bonds and commodities. He was voted Top 3 Generalist and Number 1 Pan-European Buyside Individual in Oil & Gas in Thomson Reuters’ Extel Survey in 2011, the leading survey among companies and financial institutions. He is also author of the best-selling books: “Life In The Financial Markets” (Wiley, 2014), translated to Portuguese and Spanish ; The Energy World Is Flat” (Wiley, 2014, with Diego Parrilla), translated to Portuguese and Chinese ; “Escape from the Central Bank Trap” (2017, BEP), translated to Spanish. Mr Lacalle also contributes at CNBCWorld Economic ForumEpoch TimesMises InstituteHedgeyeZero HedgeFocus Economics, Seeking Alpha, El EspañolThe Commentator, and The Wall Street Journal. He holds a PhD in Economics, CIIA financial analyst title, with a post graduate degree in IESE and a master’s degree in economic investigation (UCV).


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