The G20 Summit is likely to generate many headlines and few concrete measures. However:

1. Growth estimates have been coming down consistently for many months.
2. G20 economies have been increasing debt and imbalances under constant “stimuli” which have generated diminishing returns.
3. Global Liquidity and low rates are only disguising the misallocation of capital, poor productivity growth, and bloated government spending.
4. An agreement between China and US may be used as a catalyst, but is unlikely to change the trend of lower growth, as it will likely be a zero-sum deal, because there is no evidence that China imports less than it needs, rather the opposite.

A version of this article first appeared here.