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Timothy Taylor5 Measuring How a Higher Minimum Wage Affects Employment
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The Risk of a Correction in the Equity Bull Market
Since March 2009, the US stock market has been trending broadly higher. If we can continue to make new highs, or at least, not correct to the downside by more than 20%, until August of this year it will be the longest equity bull-market in US history.
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Disruption: Women and the Global Workforce
The economic empowerment of women is one of the biggest revolutions of the century. This transformation is one both with and without borders – a crusade that countries stand to win from and an alliance that unites women everywhere. While there are nuances across cultures, politics, and socioeconomic strata, the undeniable fact is that the success of this movement is one that is critical to overcoming productivity bottlenecks in many companies with the potential to add trillions of dollars to the global economy.
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GST and De-stocking: Where’s the proof?
A key argument offered as an impact of GST on economic growth has been in terms of the de-stocking effect. The idea here is that as the GST was to be implemented, producers and sellers of goods decided to get rid of their excess stocks first, which were priced as per earlier tax rates, in Q1 2017-18. Only once the GST was implemented was another batch of fresh stock expected to enter the markets.
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China – Leading Indicator? Stocks, Credit Policy, Rebalancing and Money Supply
Chinese bond yields have reached their highest since October 2014. Chinese stocks have corrected despite the US market making new highs. The PBoC has introduced targeted lending to SMEs and agricultural borrowers. Meanwhile, money supply growth is below target and continues to moderate.
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Bull Market Breather or Beginning of The End?
Stock markets have generally taken a breather during November. High yield and corporate bond yields have risen, but from record lows. Since April, the Interest Rate Swap yield curve has flattened far less than Treasuries. Global economic growth forecasts continued to be revised higher.
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Millennials and Climate Change
Millennials are a generation with a list full of endowments. Web, cinema, gender-identification, feminism and technology have come of age at the same time as they have. No generation of mankind has ever witnessed as many empowering changes in the world they inhabit.
- 8
How Did Demonetisation Impact India?
I had delivered a talk based on the Q3, 2016-17 growth numbers to understand the impact of demonetisation on them and related questions on the drive itself. A year into the demonetisation decision, India's growth has tumbled only faster - It had come in at 6.6% in the October-December 2016 quarter, but has been at 5.6% in the two quarters that followed. While it can be argued that the real economic impact of the initiative was thus felt post Q3, 2016-17, the fact of the matter is that the impact had started becoming visible even earlier on as I argue in this post based on the talk. Appended below is the original.
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