More in Global Economy


7 years

GST and De-stocking: Where’s the proof?

A key argument offered as an impact of GST on economic growth has been in terms of the de-stocking effect. The idea here is that as the GST was to be implemented, producers and sellers of goods decided to get rid of their excess stocks first, which were priced as per earlier tax rates, in Q1 2017-18. Only once the GST was implemented was another batch of fresh stock expected to enter the markets. 

7 years

China – Leading Indicator? Stocks, Credit Policy, Rebalancing and Money Supply

Chinese bond yields have reached their highest since October 2014. Chinese stocks have corrected despite the US market making new highs. The PBoC has introduced targeted lending to SMEs and agricultural borrowers. Meanwhile, money supply growth is below target and continues to moderate.

7 years

Bull Market Breather or Beginning of The End?

Stock markets have generally taken a breather during November. High yield and corporate bond yields have risen, but from record lows. Since April, the Interest Rate Swap yield curve has flattened far less than Treasuries. Global economic growth forecasts continued to be revised higher.

7 years

Millennials and Climate Change

Millennials are a generation with a list full of endowments. Web, cinema, gender-identification, feminism and technology have come of age at the same time as they have. No generation of mankind has ever witnessed as many empowering changes in the world they inhabit.

7 years

How Did Demonetisation Impact India?

I had delivered a talk based on the Q3, 2016-17 growth numbers to understand the impact of demonetisation on them and related questions on the drive itself.

7 years

A Tale of Two Central Banks: Diverging challenges for BoE and Fed

Earlier this week, the Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in a decade, while the US Federal Reserve kept the fed funds rate unchanged. While the latter’s policy going forward is more likely to be an increase in interest rates, there is less surety about the latter.

7 years

Global Real Estate and the end of QE – Is it time to be afraid?

Rising interest rates and higher bond yields are here to stay. Real estate prices seem not to be affected by higher finance costs. Household debt continues to rise especially in advanced economies. Real estate supply remains constrained and demand continues to grow.  

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