More in Global Economy


3 years

A Safe Place to Hide – Inflation and the Bond Markets

US bond yields have risen from historic lows, they should rise further, they may not. The Federal Reserve is beginning to reduce its balance sheet other CBs continue QE. US bonds may still be a safe haven, but a hawkish Fed makes short duration vulnerable. Short dated UK Gilts make a safe place to hide, come the correction in stocks.

3 years

A warning Knell From The housing Market – Inciting a Riot?

Global residential real estate prices continue to rise but momentum is slowing. Prices in Russia continue to fall but Australian house prices look set to follow. After a decade of QE, real estate will be more sensitive to interest rate increases. 

3 years

The Risk of a Correction in the Equity Bull Market

Since March 2009, the US stock market has been trending broadly higher. If we can continue to make new highs, or at least, not correct to the downside by more than 20%, until August of this year it will be the longest equity bull-market in US history.

3 years

Disruption: Women and the Global Workforce

The economic empowerment of women is one of the biggest revolutions of the century. This transformation is one both with and without borders – a crusade that countries stand to win from and an alliance that unites women everywhere. While there are nuances across cultures, politics, and socioeconomic strata, the undeniable fact is that the success of this movement is one that is critical to overcoming productivity bottlenecks in many companies with the potential to add trillions of dollars to the global economy.

3 years

GST and De-stocking: Where’s the proof?

A key argument offered as an impact of GST on economic growth has been in terms of the de-stocking effect. The idea here is that as the GST was to be implemented, producers and sellers of goods decided to get rid of their excess stocks first, which were priced as per earlier tax rates, in Q1 2017-18. Only once the GST was implemented was another batch of fresh stock expected to enter the markets. 

3 years

How Did Demonetisation Impact India?

I had delivered a talk based on the Q3, 2016-17 growth numbers to understand the impact of demonetisation on them and related questions on the drive itself. A year into the demonetisation decision, India's growth has tumbled only faster - It had come in at 6.6% in the October-December 2016 quarter, but has been at 5.6% in the two quarters that followed. While it can be argued that the real economic impact of the initiative was thus felt post Q3, 2016-17, the fact of the matter is that the impact had started becoming visible even earlier on as I argue in this post based on the talk. Appended below is the original.

3 years

A Tale of Two Central Banks: Diverging challenges for BoE and Fed

Earlier this week, the Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in a decade, while the US Federal Reserve kept the fed funds rate unchanged. While the latter’s policy going forward is more likely to be an increase in interest rates, there is less surety about the latter.