More in Global Economy


3 years

Is the US Exporting a Recession?

The Federal Reserve continue to raise rates as S&P earnings beat estimates. The ECB and BoJ maintain QE. Globally, corporations rely on US$ financing, nonetheless. Signs of a slowdown in growth are clearer outside the US.

3 years

Inflation or Employment

Inflationary fears are growing and US rates continue to rise. Employment has become more flexible since the crisis of 2008/2009. Commodity prices have risen but from multi-year lows. During the next recession job losses will rapidly temper inflationary pressures.

3 years

What to Expect from Central Bankers

The Federal Reserve continues to tighten and other Central Banks will follow. The BIS expects stocks to lose their lustre and bond yields to rise. The normalisation process will be protracted, like the QE it replaces. Macro prudential policy will have greater emphasis during the next boom.

3 years

Rent or Own ?

Most people, especially Indians want to have their dream homes as soon as they can. Intense competition among banks (private as well as government banks) to acquire customers means it's easy to get a loan now than before. In addition, most people believe that property prices never fall. It's a belief...so no amount of reasoning can convince such people out of it.

3 years

Stocks for the Long Run but not the Short

In the long run stocks outperform bonds. For a decade stocks, bonds and real estate have risen in tandem. The risk of a substantial correction is high. Value-based equity investment is unfashionably enticing.

3 years

Are We Nearly There Yet? Employment, Interest Rates and Inflation

Rising interest rates and inflation are spooking financial markets. Unemployment data suggests that labour markets are tight. Central Banks will have to respond to a collapse in the three asset bubbles.

3 years

8 Downside Risks to Indian Economy in 2018

The India-optimists opine that the negative effects of demonetization have subsided. Initial glitches in GST implementation are now over. Together Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) and National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) should put a check on bad loans despite the delaying tactics used by loan defaulters, and bank credit to the industrial sector will be back to normal.