UK Housing Market Records Largest Annual Price Drop Since 2009

The UK's housing market is experiencing a significant decline, with house prices falling by 5.3% compared to the previous year, marking the largest annual drop since 2009.

Nationwide, the building society, reported that this decline equates to a £14,600 decrease in the value of a typical UK home since its peak in August 2022. Several factors are contributing to this downturn, including higher borrowing costs for homebuyers and a slowdown in market activity. Mortgage approvals have also dropped significantly, hovering around 20% below pre-pandemic levels. The Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates repeatedly, resulting in a base rate of 5.25%, has led to increased mortgage rates offered by lenders, intensifying pressure on potential homebuyers.

The Impact of Rising Borrowing Costs

Robert Gardner, Chief Economist at Nationwide, emphasized that the surge in borrowing costs has been a key driver of declining house prices. Affordability for homes has become stretched, with typical mortgage rates climbing to around 6%, compared to 1.5% in late 2021. This significant shift has had a profound impact on the entire housing market, and it's expected that recovery will take time.

Mortgage Rates and House Prices

As of now, the average two-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.7%, while the average five-year fixed rate stands at 6.19%, according to financial information service Moneyfacts. The culmination of these factors has caused average house prices in the UK to decline from their peak of £273,751 in August 2022 to £259,153 in the last month. Despite this drop, property prices remain notably higher than in August 2021 when the average stood at £248,857.

A Closer Look at Property Transactions

It's important to note that Nationwide's data specifically covers buyers with mortgages and does not encompass cash buyers or buy-to-let transactions. Property website Zoopla reported that individuals with mortgages currently constitute 60% of all house sales, with cash buyers at 31.8%, and buy-to-let investors accounting for the remaining 8.2%.

Mr. Gardner also highlighted a shift in the types of properties being purchased by mortgage-reliant buyers. Transactions have decreased across all property types, but the most substantial decline has occurred in detached houses. Conversely, smaller, more affordable properties like flats have seen a less pronounced decline. Detached property prices have surged by 23% since the onset of the Covid pandemic in 2020, whereas flat prices have increased by 13%.

First-Time Buyers and Shifting Market Trends

Nationwide reported that mortgage completions in the first half of 2023 were 33% lower than in 2019. The number of first-time buyers has fallen by 25% compared to pre-pandemic levels, while buy-to-let purchases have decreased by 30%. In contrast, cash transactions have increased by 2%. A first-time buyer with an average wage and a typical property, who puts down a 20% deposit, now spends over 40% of their take-home pay on monthly mortgage payments.

Will House Prices Continue to Fall in 2023?

UK house prices are expected to fall by 6.6% in 2023, and then by a further 4.9% next year. While the UK housing market is likely to remain subdued in the short term, improving earnings coupled with lower house prices could enhance housing affordability over time. This may especially hold true if mortgage rates moderate after interest rates reach their peak.

Navigating the Challenges of the UK Housing Market

The UK housing market is facing its largest annual decline since 2009, with rising borrowing costs and increased mortgage rates putting pressure on homebuyers. Despite these challenges, a shift towards more affordable property types and potential improvements in housing affordability may shape the market's future dynamics.