The Eurozone Banks’ Trillion Timebomb
Eurozone banks have fallen dramatically in the stock market despite the results of the stress tests carried out by the ECB, and the EU Banks Index is down 25% on the year despite year-long bullish recommendations from almost every broker. This should not surprise anyone because we have seen in the past that these tests are only a theoretical exercise. Moreover, stress tests’ results are widely challenged, and rightly so, because the exercise starts with the most ridiculous premise in economics: Ceteris Paribus, or “all else remaining equal”, which never happens. Every asset manager knows that risk builds slowly and happens fast.
- 19/11/2018
- 5
Brexit: A Deal That Pleases No One
The agreement announced between the British government and the European Union has been received in the United Kingdom with criticism from all sides. The defenders of staying in the European Union consider it very negative, of course. However, and this is the most important part, it is unlikely that the conservative party itself will support this agreement in parliament. Jacob Rees-Mogg has called the agreement “a failure of the negotiators and a failure to deliver Brexit.” Boris Johnson has said that it turns the United Kingdom into a “vassal state” and Nigel Farage has described it as “the worst agreement in history”.
- 17/11/2018
- 8
Oil Price Roundtrip, A Headache For OPEC
Oil prices surged into the third quarter due to a combination of factors:
- 10/11/2018
- 7
US Elections: Few Changes, Similar Challenges
The midterm elections in the United States have produced a result that was very similar to what the surveys estimated. The so-called “blue wave”, an expected overwhelming victory of the Democratic Party predicted by some, did not happen. The Democratic Party won 26 seats in Congress, and the Republicans held the Senate, increasing their majority by two representatives. Therefore, these are better Republican results than expected.
- 10/11/2018
- 7
Argentina Peso: Calm or Truce?
The latest measures adopted by the Central Bank and the government of Argentina have stopped the collapse of the peso. However, without structural reforms on the spending side, we may find ourselves with a period of calm before a new storm.
- 07/11/2018
- 6
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