Rishi Sunak Keeps July Election Speculation Alive

Rishi Sunak refuses to rule out the possibility of a July general election.

Despite facing dissatisfaction with his performance, Sunak asserts that he remains undistracted by personal ratings. When questioned about the timing of a potential election, Sunak maintains his stance of not providing further elaboration beyond his previous statements, suggesting a likelihood of an election in the second half of the year.

According to reports from senior Conservatives, Downing Street may be intentionally fueling rumors of a summer election to enforce discipline among rebellious MPs. The recent defection of former Conservative health minister Dr. Dan Poulter to Labour adds to the challenges facing Sunak, potentially intensifying plots against his leadership. Sunak's personal satisfaction rating, as indicated by an Ipsos poll, has plummeted to -59, tying a record low set by John Major in 1994. With only 16% expressing satisfaction with Sunak's performance and 75% expressing dissatisfaction, concerns within the Conservative party persist.

Despite murmurs of Tory rebels seeking to oust Sunak post-local elections, it remains uncertain whether a change in leadership would bolster the party's electoral prospects against Keir Starmer's Labour. Notably, even prominent figures like Penny Mordaunt trail behind Starmer in personal ratings. However, Starmer's own ratings have experienced a slight decline since February. The looming shadow of electoral setbacks hangs over No. 10, with predictions suggesting significant losses for the Conservative party in the upcoming local elections.

In response to inquiries about the possibility of a July election, Sunak refrains from definitive statements, emphasizing his consistent stance throughout the year. While he hints at waiting for economic conditions to improve before calling an election, Downing Street dispels rumors circulating about an imminent election announcement. The latest feasible date for an election is set for January 28, 2025.

Sunak's recent attempts to bolster his leadership, such as increasing UK defense spending and passing the Rwanda bill, aim to strengthen his position amidst mounting challenges. Meanwhile, Labour speculates about the potential for an early summer election, framing it as an opportunity for Sunak to divert attention from contentious issues like the Rwanda deportation policy.