Colin is an investment writer and television presenter specialising in macroeconomics and the financial markets. He is the founder of "In the Long Run", an alternative investment consultancy in 2010 advising hedge funds on sales, marketing and business development. He is also a member of the advisory committee of Asia Alternative Investments Network. Colin holds prestigious qualifications from Columbia University in the City of New York, Yale University and the University of Michigan.
· Despite three Federal Reserve rate cuts, leveraged loan credit quality is rapidly declining. · Covenant-lite issues now account for more than 80% of US$ issues. · CLO managers, among others, may need to sell, but few buyers are evident.
· Last month’s squeeze in overnight domestic US$ funding rattled markets · The Fed responded rapidly but the problem has been growing for some time · Market fragility stems from problems in the transmission mechanism
· Index tracking and growth funds have outperformed value managers for several years · Last month value was resurgent, but will it last? · In the long run, value has offered a better risk adjusted return · The long-term expected return from growth stocks remains hard to assess
· JP Morgan analyse the impact of 14,000 presidential Tweets · Gold breaks out to the upside despite US$ strength · China backs down slightly over Hong Kong · Trump berates Fed Chair and China
· The risk the Sino-US trade war morphs into an international currency war has risen · The US$ Index is up since 2010 but its only back to the middle of it range since 2000 · The Chinese Yuan will weaken if the Trump administration pushes for higher tariffs · Escalation of domestic unrest in Hong Kong will see a flight to safety in the greenback