A World of Debt – Where are the Risks?
Private debt has been the main source of rising debt to GDP ratios since 2008. Advanced economies have led the trend. Emerging market debt increases have been dominated by China. Credit spreads are a key indicator to watch in 2019.
- 18/01/2019
- 3
Emerging Market Sensitivity to US Monetary Policy – What does the Fed think?
Emerging market currencies have suffered from US interest rate increases. The Dallas Fed proposes reserve/GDP ratio as a simple indicator of stress. If tightening is nearly complete their may be buying opportunities in EM stocks.
- 04/01/2019
- 4
A Global Slowdown in 2019 – Is It Already in the Price?
US stocks have given back all of their 2018 gains. Several developed and emerging stock markets are already in bear-market territory. US/China trade tensions have eased, a ‘No’ deal Brexit is priced in. An opportunity to re-balance global portfolios is nigh.
- 07/12/2018
- 6
The Self-Righting Ship: Debt, Inflation and the Credit Cycle
Rising bond yields may already have tempered economic growth. Global stocks are in a corrective phase but not a bear-market. With oil prices under pressure, inflation expectations have moderated.
- 23/11/2018
- 6
How are Chinese Stocks Responding to Tariffs with the US and a Slowdown in Asian Growth?
· Despite US tariffs, China’s September trade balance with the US reached a record high
- 09/11/2018
- 4
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