Colin is an investment writer and television presenter specialising in macroeconomics and the financial markets. He is the founder of "In the Long Run", an alternative investment consultancy in 2010 advising hedge funds on sales, marketing and business development. He is also a member of the advisory committee of Asia Alternative Investments Network. Colin holds prestigious qualifications from Columbia University in the City of New York, Yale University and the University of Michigan.
Private debt has been the main source of rising debt to GDP ratios since 2008. Advanced economies have led the trend. Emerging market debt increases have been dominated by China. Credit spreads are a key indicator to watch in 2019.
Emerging market currencies have suffered from US interest rate increases. The Dallas Fed proposes reserve/GDP ratio as a simple indicator of stress. If tightening is nearly complete their may be buying opportunities in EM stocks.
US stocks have given back all of their 2018 gains. Several developed and emerging stock markets are already in bear-market territory. US/China trade tensions have eased, a ‘No’ deal Brexit is priced in. An opportunity to re-balance global portfolios is nigh.
Rising bond yields may already have tempered economic growth. Global stocks are in a corrective phase but not a bear-market. With oil prices under pressure, inflation expectations have moderated.
· Despite US tariffs, China’s September trade balance with the US reached a record high