Colin lloyd Global Economy Expert

Colin is an investment writer and television presenter specialising in macroeconomics and the financial markets.  He is the founder of "In the Long Run", an alternative investment consultancy in 2010 advising hedge funds on sales, marketing and business development. He is also a member of the advisory committee of Asia Alternative Investments Network. Colin holds prestigious qualifications from Columbia University in the City of New York, Yale University and the University of Michigan.

 

When the Facts Change

The coronavirus is a human tragedy, but the markets remain sanguine.

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US Bonds – 2030 Vision: A Decade in the Doldrums

·        US bond yields have been in secular decline since 1981 ·        Predictions of a bond bear-market have been premature for three decades ·        High indebtedness will see any inflationary yield surges quickly subdued

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Leveraged Loans – History Rhyming?

·        Despite three Federal Reserve rate cuts, leveraged loan credit quality is rapidly declining. ·        Covenant-lite issues now account for more than 80% of US$ issues. ·        CLO managers, among others, may need to sell, but few buyers are evident.

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Fragility: What the US Money-Market Squeeze Means for the Future

·        Last month’s squeeze in overnight domestic US$ funding rattled markets ·        The Fed responded rapidly but the problem has been growing for some time ·        Market fragility stems from problems in the transmission mechanism

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Value, Momentum and Carry – Is it Time for Equity Investors to Switch?

·        Index tracking and growth funds have outperformed value managers for several years ·        Last month value was resurgent, but will it last? ·        In the long run, value has offered a better risk adjusted return ·        The long-term expected return from growth stocks remains hard to assess

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