Stocks for the Long Run but not the Short
In the long run stocks outperform bonds. For a decade stocks, bonds and real estate have risen in tandem. The risk of a substantial correction is high. Value-based equity investment is unfashionably enticing.
- 23/03/2018
- 8
Are We Nearly There Yet? Employment, Interest Rates and Inflation
Rising interest rates and inflation are spooking financial markets. Unemployment data suggests that labour markets are tight. Central Banks will have to respond to a collapse in the three asset bubbles.
- 09/03/2018
- 7
A Safe Place to Hide – Inflation and the Bond Markets
US bond yields have risen from historic lows, they should rise further, they may not. The Federal Reserve is beginning to reduce its balance sheet other CBs continue QE. US bonds may still be a safe haven, but a hawkish Fed makes short duration vulnerable. Short dated UK Gilts make a safe place to hide, come the correction in stocks.
- 16/02/2018
- 6
A warning Knell From The housing Market – Inciting a Riot?
Global residential real estate prices continue to rise but momentum is slowing. Prices in Russia continue to fall but Australian house prices look set to follow. After a decade of QE, real estate will be more sensitive to interest rate increases.
- 02/02/2018
- 9
The Risk of a Correction in the Equity Bull Market
Since March 2009, the US stock market has been trending broadly higher. If we can continue to make new highs, or at least, not correct to the downside by more than 20%, until August of this year it will be the longest equity bull-market in US history.
- 19/01/2018
- 15
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