Italy and the Repricing of European Government Debt
The yield spread between 10yr BTPs and Bunds widened 114bp in May. Populist and anti-EU politics were the catalyst for this repricing of risk. Spain, Portugal and Greece all saw yields increase as Bund yields declined. The ECB policy of OMT should help to avoid a repeat of 2011/2012.
- 08/06/2018
- 5
Robots, Employment and the Mis-Measurement of Productivity
UK productivity – output/hour has risen 1.5% in a decade. Unemployment, at 4.2%, is the lowest since April 1975. Real-wages have risen by 1.1% per annum over the last four years. Robots may be coming but it’s not showing up in the data.
- 18/05/2018
- 5
Is the US Exporting a Recession?
The Federal Reserve continue to raise rates as S&P earnings beat estimates. The ECB and BoJ maintain QE. Globally, corporations rely on US$ financing, nonetheless. Signs of a slowdown in growth are clearer outside the US.
- 04/05/2018
- 7
Inflation or Employment
Inflationary fears are growing and US rates continue to rise. Employment has become more flexible since the crisis of 2008/2009. Commodity prices have risen but from multi-year lows. During the next recession job losses will rapidly temper inflationary pressures.
- 20/04/2018
- 7
What to Expect from Central Bankers
The Federal Reserve continues to tighten and other Central Banks will follow. The BIS expects stocks to lose their lustre and bond yields to rise. The normalisation process will be protracted, like the QE it replaces. Macro prudential policy will have greater emphasis during the next boom.
- 06/04/2018
- 6
BBN Times connects decision makers to you. Experts in their fields, worth listening to, are the ones who write our articles. We believe these are the real commentators of the future. We quickly and accurately deliver serious information around the world. BBN Times provides its readers human expertise to find trusted answers by providing a platform and a voice to anyone willing to know more about the latest trends. Stay tuned, the revolution has begun.