Not Waving but Drowning – Stocks, Debt and Inflation?
The US stock market is close to being in a corrective phase -10% off its highs. Global debt has passed $63trln – well above the levels of 2007. Interest rates are still historically low, especially given the point in the economic cycle. Predictions of a bear-market may be premature, but the headwinds are building.
- 26/10/2018
- 5
UK Financial Services: Opportunities and Threats Post Brexit
A Brexit deal is still no closer, but trade will not cease even if the March deadline passes. In the short-term, UK and EU economic growth will suffer. Medium-term new arrangements will hold back capital investment. Long-term, there are a host of opportunities, in time they will eclipse the threats.
- 28/09/2018
- 8
Divergent – The Breakdown of Stock Market Correlations, Temporary or Permanent?
Emerging market stocks have stabilised, helped by the strength of US equities. Rising emerging market bond yields are beginning to attract investor attention. US tariffs and domestic tax cuts support US economic growth. US$ strength is dampening US inflation, doing the work of the Federal Reserve.
- 31/08/2018
- 5
Canary in the Coal-Mine: Emerging Market Contagion
As US interest rates continue to normalise and US tariffs begin to bite, a number of emerging markets (EM’s) have come under pressure. Of course, the largest market to exhibit signs of stress is China, the MSCI China Index is down 7% since mid-June, whilst the RMB has also weakened against the US$ by more than 6% since its April low. Will contagion spread to developed markets and, if so, which country might be the ‘carrier’?
- 13/07/2018
- 5
Where in the World? Hunting for Value in the Bond Market
Few government bond markets offer a positive real return. Those that do tend to have high associated currency risk. Active management of fixed income portfolios is the only real solution. Italy is the only G7 country offering a real-yield greater than 1.5%.
- 22/06/2018
- 3
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