Colin is an investment writer and television presenter specialising in macroeconomics and the financial markets. He is the founder of "In the Long Run", an alternative investment consultancy in 2010 advising hedge funds on sales, marketing and business development. He is also a member of the advisory committee of Asia Alternative Investments Network. Colin holds prestigious qualifications from Columbia University in the City of New York, Yale University and the University of Michigan.
· The amount of negative yielding fixed securities has hit a new record · The Federal Reserve and the ECB are expected to resume easing of interest rates · Secondary market liquidity for many fixed income securities is dying · Outstanding debt is setting all-time highs
· Global Value Chains have suffered since 2009. · Despite low interest rates, financial costs remain too high. · Bank profitability has not recovered, yet banks are still too big to fail.
Uncertainty about US trade policy has truncated the rally in stocks Gold remains supported by central bank buying and fears of a US$ collapse Gold miners look best placed to reap the benefits regardless of direction A collapse in the U$ is needed for gold to rally substantially In Q4 2018, as stocks declined, gold rallied 8.1% and gold mining stocks 13.7%. It was a prescient reminder of the value of gold as a portfolio diversifier. There have, however, been some other developments both for gold and gold mining stocks which are worthy of closer investigation.
· Will the Sino-US trade war breed contagion? · Will the dispute trigger a global recession? · Has the era of freer trade ended? · Will asset prices suffer?
· Populist politicians are turning to Modern Monetary Theory · Fiscal stimulus has not led to significant inflation during the last decade · MMT is too radical to be adopted in full but the allure of fiscal expansion is great · Asset markets will benefit over the medium-term