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More in Global Economy
Embracing Behavioural Science
Richard Thaler, the father of ‘nudge theory’, has made economics more human. The recent economics Nobel prize winner has shown that financial and economic decision makers are not always rational, but mostly deeply human. The concept of 'nudge theory' is a relatively subtle policy shift that encourages people to make decisions that are in their broad self-interest. It’s not about penalising people financially if they don’t act in certain way. It’s about making it easier for them to make a certain decision.
- 5
RBI's Inflation Dilemma
The Reserve Bank of India’s recent monetary policy decision to keep benchmark rates unchanged in the face of rising inflationary pressures is justified, but is also jarring as India braces for recessionary conditions up ahead.
- 4
Japan's Economic Outlook
Prime minister Shinzō Abe called a snap general election in October, amid rising geopolitical tensions. The Bank of Japan maintains quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) despite the Federal Reserve's plan to reduce its balance sheet. Japanese stocks will benefit if the ‘Three Arrows’ of Abenomics continue. In addition, wages are rising whilst inflation is stuck at zero.
- 3
Analysing the Indian Steel Sector
Amid the disappointing performance of the index of core industries (ICI) in July 2017, at 2.4% year on year growth, the steel industry stands out with an outlier growth of 9.2%. In fact, steel has shown a robust growth of 10.9% on average in the past 12 months, which is far higher than average ICI growth of 3.6%.
- 5
Is Chinese growth about to falter?
China has long been the marginal driver of demand for a wide array of commodities. In an attempt to understand the recent rise in the price of industrial metals, the strength of Chinese demand is a key factor. The picture is mixed.
- 7
Is the RBI too Optimistic ?
Recently, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revisited its inflation forecasts, sharply downwards amid many questions on their accuracy. It might have to do the same for its growth forecasts, though a small revision has been done already.
- 6
The Next Commodity Super-Cycle
Does the rising price of industrial metals herald the beginning of the next commodity super-cycle? Industrial Metals have been increasing sharply during the last quarter. Global economic growth remains muted but is accelerating in emerging markets. In addition, capital expenditure in the mining sector has been weak leading to supply constraints. A short-term cyclical recovery seems more likely than the beginning of a new super-cycle.
- 6
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