In the big-picture long-run sense, US fertility rates haven’t changed much in recent decades.
There’s a puzzle in US labor markets, as well as in labor markets in a number of other countries.
There are some situations where you would hope or expect that experts in a certain area, when faced with the same fact pattern, would make similar decisions: for example, if several doctors separately examine the same patient, or several judges consider an appropriate sentence for the same convicted criminal, or several insurance underwriters consider the appropriate insurance premium for a certain commercial client.
“In October 1347 ships arrived in the Sicilian port of Messina carrying Genoese merchants from the Crimean Port of Kaffa.
It’s not common. But every now and then, a prominent economist will make a strong near-term prediction that flies in the face of both mainstream wisdom and their known political loyalties.
It’s well-known that those who major in economics earn more, on average, than those who major in other social sciences or in the humanities.
Is the ongoing inflation in the US economy more likely to be a temporary burst that will fade away, or a longer-term pattern that will require a policy reaction?